Sadr militia battle troops in four Iraqi cities

The fighting, which severely strains a ceasefire declared by Sadr in late August and renewed last month, prompted the cleric to issue a stern warning that he would launch protests and a nationwide strike if attacks against his movement and "poor people" are not halted.

"We demand that religious and political leaders intervene to stop the attacks on poor people. We call on all Iraqis to launch protests across all the provinces.

"If the government does not respect these demands, the second step will be general civil disobedience in Baghdad and the Iraqi provinces," Sadr said in a statement read by his representative Hazam al-Aaraji in the holy city of Najaf.

Liqa al-Yassin, an MP from the Sadr bloc, told AFP that the Sadrists would boycott parliamentary proceedings "until the government agrees to our demands."

I said a couple of months ago that the eventual Dem nominee would easily defeat John "100 Years of Iraq" McCain because Iraq would "blow up" over the summer. Looks like it's about to happen....

The 'success' of the Surge was largely the result of the ceasefire with the Mahdi Army, plus the desire of local sheiks to deal with El Quaida fanatics who'd been blowing up everyone at random.

With this out of the way it's time to deal with the American Imperialists who are also blowing up everyone at random.

It looks like it's all about to ramp up to levels never before seen with not just the Sunnis in their region but the Shiites in all of them hammering Uncle Sam for all they're worth.

The Iranians will be very helpful with explosives and munitions, training and advice.

Welcome to Tet 08.

Welcome to the End of Empire.

Sunni forces losing patience with U.S. - a story about how we forgot to pay all the local Sunni's we've been paying protection money to assisting in their efforts to fight AQI:

"They should make me stronger. They should not weaken me," said Kassim, a former commander in the Islamic Army, an insurgent group. "We need weapons. We need vehicles. We do not even have gas for the few cars we have. When we joined, the Americans promised to provide all necessities. Now we know those were only words."

In the past two months, he said, 20 of his fighters have quit. Many felt their monthly salary was no longer worth the risk of fighting al-Qaeda in Iraq. His men also have not received their salaries in two months, he said. "We'll all be patient for another two months. If nothing changes, then we'll suspend and quit," Kassim said. "Then we'll go back to fighting the Americans."

So, to recap:

1. The Sunni militias we've been arming and financing are fed up with the lack of progress the Iraqi government is making.

2. The Sadrist Shi'a militia we've been harassing despite a unilateral cease-fire they declared are fed up with the Iraqi government (and with us).

3. The Shi'a dominated Iraqi government is fed up with us, and hosts Iran's president on a state visit, despite our Oval Office resident's saber-rattling about imaginary Iranian nukes.

WTF did the surge accomplish, again? I mean, other than letting the Bush admin kick the can down the road for another couple of Friedman Units?

At least it was four days ago.

Via the Beeb:

Fresh fighting has erupted in the southern Iraqi city of Basra and elsewhere, as Iraqi security forces battle Shia militants for a second day.

Police and witnesses report clashes in five districts of Basra. More than 40 people are said to have died overall.

Fighting is continuing in Baghdad, and there have been casualties after rockets were fired at the Green Zone.

Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has given militants 72 hours to lay down their arms or face "severe penalties".

More details at the above link.

Also, as I was driving home from work this morning, an NPR reporter in Baghdad said that the number of bodies "showing up in the morgue" (her words) in the capital doubled overnight. She interpreted this as an indication that the sectarian violence which had decreased significantly in recent months was starting to break out again, rather than that the deaths resulted from the government-vs.-Sadrist battles.

For now, the Mahdi Army has stood down, and Maliki's attempt to grab control of Basra has ended in failure. But the bigger humiliation for Maliki and the occupation forces was how it ended.

It seems that when Maliki's Basra offensive fizzled out, after about three or four days of largely ineffectual efforts, members of his government scurried off to Iran, and got the Iranians to act as interlocutors to resolve the problem, and establish how the crisis would end. There is little sign that General Petraeus was even consulted, or was able to influence the outcome. It is becoming more apparent that the Iranians, with no troops on the ground, have more influence over the situation than Petraeus, who has 150,000.

Part of Petraeus' problem is that he has next to no troops in Southern Iraq, and would be hard-pressed to find any that he could send there. Another piece of it, is that the political success of "the surge" depends on keeping US casualties low. If US troops were committed on a large scale to battle the Mahdi Army, casualties would go up, and the narrative in the corporate media that the surge has pacified Iraq would go out the window.

So Petraeus is in a dilemma. He has the "surge" troops, but he can't use them in heavy urban combat, without making it appear that the surge has failed.

A further problem for Petraeus is that a few Special Forces troops did accompany Maliki on his failed Basra adventure, and the US did provide a few airstrikes in Support of Maliki. While these efforts were far too little to influence the outcome of the battle, they placed the US in the position of bombing a Shi'ite Iraqi city, and supporting Maliki in attacks on a deeply popular Iraqi social movement. Add to this, Bush's remarks in support of Maliki's offensive, and his comment to the effect that the offensive was a pivotal point for Iraq, which in less than a week turned into a failure, and the result is that Maliki is seen as a tool of the Americans working against the Iraqi people, and both Bush and Maliki end up being humiliated.

Some time in the next few days, Maliki will have to come back to the Green Zone from Basra, and when he does, his vow to stay in Basra until he has disarmed the militias will make him look ridiculous.